1 Data Preparation

dataset <- read.csv(file = params$file, header = T, sep = ",")
#run parallel cores 
options(mc.cores = 8, brms.backend = "cmdstanr", brms.file_refit = "on_change")
#install.packages("loo")
#remotes::install_github("stan-dev/loo")
library(remotes)
library(loo)
library(psych)
library(relativeVariability)
library(brms)
library(cmdstanr)
library(data.table)
library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)
library(haven)
#library(rstanarm)
library(knitr)
library(rstan)
library(shinystan)

1.1 Rescale Data

dataset$negemo_full_m <- (dataset$negemo_full_m -1)*(4/6)+1
dataset$posemo_full_m <- (dataset$posemo_full_m -1)*(4/6)+1

dataset$neuro_t <- (dataset$neuro_t -1)*(4/6)+1

hist(dataset$negemo_full_m)

1.2 Censoring Data

range(dataset$negemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 1 5
range(dataset$posemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 1 5
sd(dataset$negemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.7476492
mean(dataset$negemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 1.837618
sd(dataset$posemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.8844702
mean(dataset$posemo_full_m, na.rm = T)
## [1] 3.359172
sd(dataset$neuro_t, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.7692765
mean(dataset$neuro_t, na.rm = T)
## [1] 3.041089
qplot(dataset$negemo_full_, binwidth = .1)
## Warning: Removed 873 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_bin()`).

qplot(dataset$posemo_full_, binwidth = .1)
## Warning: Removed 873 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_bin()`).

dataset$Acens <- case_when(dataset$negemo_full_m == 1 ~ "left",
                         dataset$negemo_full_m == 5 ~ "right",
                         TRUE ~ "none")
table(dataset$Acens)
## 
##  left  none right 
##   525  5100     1
dataset$Acens_p <- case_when(dataset$posemo_full_m == 1 ~ "left",
                         dataset$posemo_full_m == 5 ~ "right",
                         TRUE ~ "none")
table(dataset$Acens_p)
## 
##  left  none right 
##    30  5476   120

2 BCLSM Negative Emotion

Kn_model_neuro3 <- brm(bf(negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ neuro_t+ (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
                       iter = 7000, warmup = 2000,  chains = 4,
                       control = list(adapt_delta = .99), init = 0.1,
                       file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_neuro3"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kn_model_neuro3)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                     Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)           0.55      0.05     0.47     0.66 1.00     1599     3369
## sd(sigma_Intercept)     0.38      0.03     0.32     0.46 1.00     2701     4379
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           0.66      0.27     0.14     1.19 1.01      744     1793
## sigma_Intercept    -1.00      0.18    -1.36    -0.63 1.00     1965     4183
## neuro_t             0.37      0.08     0.21     0.54 1.00      763     1589
## sigma_neuro_t       0.10      0.06    -0.01     0.22 1.00     2033     3647
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
plot(Kn_model_neuro3)

pp_check(Kn_model_neuro3)
## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.
## Warning: Censored responses are not shown in 'pp_check'.

prior_summary(Kn_model_neuro3)
##                   prior     class      coef     group resp  dpar nlpar lb ub       source
##                  (flat)         b                                                 default
##                  (flat)         b   neuro_t                                  (vectorized)
##                  (flat)         b                          sigma                  default
##                  (flat)         b   neuro_t                sigma             (vectorized)
##  student_t(3, 1.7, 2.5) Intercept                                                 default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5) Intercept                          sigma                  default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd                                       0         default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd                          sigma        0         default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd           person_id                   0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd Intercept person_id                   0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd           person_id      sigma        0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd Intercept person_id      sigma        0    (vectorized)

2.1 Model comparison

2.1.1 scale vs. no scale parameter

Kn_model_neuro2 <- brm(negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id), data = dataset,
                    iter = 6000, warmup = 2000,  chains = 4,
                    control = list(adapt_delta = .98), inits = 0.1 ,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_neuro2"))
## Warning: Argument 'inits' is deprecated. Please use argument 'init' instead.
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kn_model_neuro2)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 6000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 16000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.56      0.05     0.48     0.67 1.00     1247     2009
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept     0.64      0.27     0.09     1.16 1.00      816     1565
## neuro_t       0.38      0.09     0.22     0.56 1.00      807     1429
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.57      0.01     0.55     0.58 1.00    15520    11184
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
modelA <- Kn_model_neuro2
modelB <- Kn_model_neuro3

modelA <- add_criterion(modelA, "loo")
modelB <- add_criterion(modelB, "loo")

loo <- loo_compare(modelA,modelB, criterion = "loo")

loo <- as.data.frame(loo)

loo$Dataset <- params$file
loo <- tibble::rownames_to_column(loo, "model")
library("writexl")
write_xlsx(loo,paste0("loo", params$file, ".xlsx"))

kable(loo)
model elpd_diff se_diff elpd_loo se_elpd_loo p_loo se_p_loo looic se_looic Dataset
modelB 0.0000 0.00000 -3382.576 69.51028 195.41820 15.360284 6765.153 139.0206 Dataset 7 public.csv
modelA -443.2634 40.92538 -3825.840 73.31456 76.26595 2.790117 7651.679 146.6291 Dataset 7 public.csv

2.1.2 censoring vs. no censoring

Kn_model_neuro4 <- brm(bf(negemo_full_m  ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ neuro_t+ (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
                       iter = 7000, warmup = 2000,  chains = 4,
                       control = list(adapt_delta = .9999), init = 0,
                       file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_neuro4"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kn_model_neuro4)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: negemo_full_m ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                     Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)           0.50      0.04     0.43     0.59 1.00     1580     3372
## sd(sigma_Intercept)     0.44      0.04     0.37     0.52 1.00     2517     4994
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           0.84      0.24     0.38     1.31 1.00      928     1849
## sigma_Intercept    -1.42      0.21    -1.83    -1.00 1.00     1483     2615
## neuro_t             0.33      0.07     0.18     0.48 1.00     1033     1908
## sigma_neuro_t       0.20      0.07     0.07     0.34 1.00     1516     2512
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
extract_param <- function(model, parameter) {
  ci <- posterior_summary(model, variable = parameter)
  est <- sprintf("%.2f %.2f [%.2f;%.2f]", ci[,"Estimate"],ci[,"Est.Error"], ci[,"Q2.5"], ci[,"Q97.5"])
  est
}

results_Cens <- data.frame(matrix(nrow = 2, 
                             ncol = 6+1)) 
names(results_Cens) <- c("model", "negemo_b_neuro", "negemo_b_neuro_sigma", "negemo_sigma",
                    "posemo_b_neuro", "posemo_b_neuro_sigma", "posemo_sigma"
                    )

results_Cens$model <- c("modelCensoring", "modelnoCensoring")

#NA

results_Cens[1, "negemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_neuro_t")
results_Cens[1, "negemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_Cens[1, "negemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_Intercept")

results_Cens[2, "negemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro4, "b_neuro_t")
results_Cens[2, "negemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro4, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_Cens[2, "negemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro4, "b_sigma_Intercept")

2.1.3 BCLSM vs. model C (two-part model)

dataset <- dataset %>% left_join(dataset %>% distinct(person_id, neuro_t) %>% mutate(neuro_Q =Hmisc::cut2(neuro_t, g = 4)), by = c("person_id", "neuro_t"))


Kn_model_neuro_jinxed <- brm(bf(negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1|gr(person_id, by = neuro_Q)),
  sigma ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
  iter = 5000, warmup = 2000,  chains = 4,
  control = list(adapt_delta = .99), init = 0.1,
  file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_neuro_jinxed"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kn_model_neuro_jinxed)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1 | gr(person_id, by = neuro_Q)) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 5000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 12000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                                  Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[1.38,2.62))     0.56      0.10     0.40     0.81 1.00     1028     2351
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[2.62,3.25))     0.61      0.12     0.43     0.87 1.00     1082     2302
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[3.25,3.75))     0.59      0.11     0.42     0.85 1.00     1184     2910
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[3.75,4.88])     0.59      0.12     0.41     0.89 1.00     1568     3051
## sd(sigma_Intercept)                  0.38      0.03     0.32     0.46 1.00     1599     3247
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           0.67      0.29     0.07     1.19 1.01      681     1136
## sigma_Intercept    -1.00      0.19    -1.37    -0.63 1.01     1090     2041
## neuro_t             0.37      0.09     0.21     0.56 1.01      746     1373
## sigma_neuro_t       0.10      0.06    -0.01     0.23 1.01     1061     1714
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
modelB <- Kn_model_neuro3
modelC <- Kn_model_neuro_jinxed

modelB <- add_criterion(modelB, "loo")
modelC <- add_criterion(modelC, "loo")

loo_c <- loo_compare(modelB,modelC, criterion = "loo")

loo_c <- as.data.frame(loo_c)

loo_c$Dataset <- params$file
loo_c <- tibble::rownames_to_column(loo_c, "model")

library("writexl")
write_xlsx(loo_c,paste0("loo_c", params$file, ".xlsx"))

kable(loo_c)
model elpd_diff se_diff elpd_loo se_elpd_loo p_loo se_p_loo looic se_looic Dataset
modelC 0.00000 0.000000 -3380.804 69.24837 193.4807 14.85543 6761.608 138.4967 Dataset 7 public.csv
modelB -1.77208 1.043611 -3382.576 69.51028 195.4182 15.36028 6765.153 139.0206 Dataset 7 public.csv

2.2 control for gender

dataset$gender <- as.factor(dataset$gender)

Kn_model_sex <- brm(bf(negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + gender + (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ neuro_t + gender), data = dataset,
                       iter = 9000, warmup = 2000, chains = 8,
                       control = list(adapt_delta = .99), inits = 0.1,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_sex"))
print(Kn_model_sex)
pp_check(Kn_model_sex)

plot(Kn_model_sex)

3 BCLSM Positive Emotion

Kp_model_neuro3 <- brm(bf(posemo_full_m | cens(Acens_p) ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
                       chains = 4,
                       control = list(adapt_delta = .95), inits = 0.1,
                       iter = 7000, warmup = 2000,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_neuro3"))
## Warning: Argument 'inits' is deprecated. Please use argument 'init' instead.
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kp_model_neuro3)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: posemo_full_m | cens(Acens_p) ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                     Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)           0.51      0.04     0.44     0.61 1.00     2065     4462
## sd(sigma_Intercept)     0.40      0.04     0.34     0.48 1.00     3084     5894
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           4.70      0.24     4.22     5.19 1.00     1249     2740
## sigma_Intercept    -0.45      0.20    -0.84    -0.06 1.00     2062     3832
## neuro_t            -0.44      0.08    -0.60    -0.29 1.00     1275     2648
## sigma_neuro_t      -0.01      0.06    -0.14     0.11 1.00     2044     3903
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
pp_check(Kp_model_neuro3)
## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.
## Warning: Censored responses are not shown in 'pp_check'.

plot(Kp_model_neuro3)

prior_summary(Kp_model_neuro3)
##                   prior     class      coef     group resp  dpar nlpar lb ub       source
##                  (flat)         b                                                 default
##                  (flat)         b   neuro_t                                  (vectorized)
##                  (flat)         b                          sigma                  default
##                  (flat)         b   neuro_t                sigma             (vectorized)
##  student_t(3, 3.4, 2.5) Intercept                                                 default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5) Intercept                          sigma                  default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd                                       0         default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd                          sigma        0         default
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd           person_id                   0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd Intercept person_id                   0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd           person_id      sigma        0    (vectorized)
##    student_t(3, 0, 2.5)        sd Intercept person_id      sigma        0    (vectorized)

3.1 Model comparison

3.1.1 scale vs. no scale parameter

Kp_model_neuro2 <- brm(posemo_full_m | cens(Acens_p) ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id), data = dataset,
                    iter = 7000, warmup = 2000, chains = 4,
                   control = list(adapt_delta = .95), inits = 0.1,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_neuro2"))
## Warning: Argument 'inits' is deprecated. Please use argument 'init' instead.
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kp_model_neuro2)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: posemo_full_m | cens(Acens_p) ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.52      0.05     0.44     0.61 1.00     2091     4028
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept     4.70      0.24     4.23     5.19 1.01     1357     3040
## neuro_t      -0.44      0.08    -0.60    -0.29 1.01     1436     2977
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.69      0.01     0.68     0.71 1.00    26018    15381
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
modelAp <- Kp_model_neuro2
modelBp <- Kp_model_neuro3


modelAp <- add_criterion(modelAp, "loo")
modelBp <- add_criterion(modelBp, "loo")

looP <- loo_compare(modelAp,modelBp, criterion = "loo")

looP <- as.data.frame(looP)

looP$Dataset <- params$file
looP <- tibble::rownames_to_column(looP, "model")
library("writexl")
write_xlsx(looP,paste0("looP", params$file, ".xlsx"))

kable(looP)
model elpd_diff se_diff elpd_loo se_elpd_loo p_loo se_p_loo looic se_looic Dataset
modelBp 0.000 0.00000 -4213.085 58.47821 151.71555 8.850975 8426.170 116.9564 Dataset 7 public.csv
modelAp -573.306 39.20769 -4786.391 63.35923 74.31786 2.098589 9572.782 126.7185 Dataset 7 public.csv

3.1.2 censoring vs. no censoring

Kp_model_neuro4 <- brm(bf(posemo_full_m ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
                       chains = 4,
                       control = list(adapt_delta = .9999), inits = 0,
                       iter = 7000, warmup = 2000,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_neuro4"))
## Warning: Argument 'inits' is deprecated. Please use argument 'init' instead.
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kp_model_neuro4)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: posemo_full_m ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                     Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)           0.49      0.04     0.42     0.58 1.00     2247     5084
## sd(sigma_Intercept)     0.40      0.04     0.34     0.48 1.00     2710     6074
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           4.62      0.23     4.16     5.10 1.00     1249     2538
## sigma_Intercept    -0.57      0.19    -0.96    -0.19 1.00     1651     3609
## neuro_t            -0.42      0.07    -0.57    -0.27 1.00     1320     2786
## sigma_neuro_t       0.02      0.06    -0.10     0.14 1.00     1720     3542
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
#pa

results_Cens[1, "posemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_neuro_t")
results_Cens[1, "posemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_Cens[1, "posemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_Intercept")


results_Cens[2, "posemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro4, "b_neuro_t")
results_Cens[2, "posemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro4, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_Cens[2, "posemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro4, "b_sigma_Intercept")

3.1.3 BCLSM vs. model C (two-part model)

Kp_model_neuro_jinxed <- brm(bf(posemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1|gr(person_id, by = neuro_Q)),
     sigma ~ neuro_t + (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
  iter = 5000, warmup = 2000,  chains = 4,
  control = list(adapt_delta = .99), init = 0.1,
  file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_neuro_jinxed"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(Kp_model_neuro_jinxed)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: posemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ neuro_t + (1 | gr(person_id, by = neuro_Q)) 
##          sigma ~ neuro_t + (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4522) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 5000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 12000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 75) 
##                                  Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[1.38,2.62))     0.46      0.08     0.33     0.64 1.00     2158     3646
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[2.62,3.25))     0.53      0.10     0.38     0.76 1.00     1757     3085
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[3.25,3.75))     0.49      0.09     0.34     0.69 1.00     2152     3828
## sd(Intercept:neuro_Q[3.75,4.88])     0.65      0.13     0.44     0.96 1.00     1585     3252
## sd(sigma_Intercept)                  0.37      0.03     0.31     0.45 1.00     2029     4256
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           4.27      0.25     3.76     4.74 1.00     1095     2328
## sigma_Intercept    -0.43      0.19    -0.80    -0.07 1.00     1387     2645
## neuro_t            -0.34      0.08    -0.50    -0.17 1.00     1068     2218
## sigma_neuro_t      -0.02      0.06    -0.14     0.09 1.00     1327     2620
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
modelB <- Kp_model_neuro3
modelC <- Kp_model_neuro_jinxed

modelB <- add_criterion(modelB, "loo")
modelC <- add_criterion(modelC, "loo")

loo_cP <- loo_compare(modelB,modelC, criterion = "loo")
## Warning: Not all models have the same y variable. ('yhash' attributes do not match)
loo_cP <- as.data.frame(loo_cP)

loo_cP$Dataset <- params$file
#loo_cP <- tibble::rownames_to_column(loo_c, "model")
library("writexl")
write_xlsx(loo_cP,paste0("loo_cP", params$file, ".xlsx"))

kable(loo_cP)
elpd_diff se_diff elpd_loo se_elpd_loo p_loo se_p_loo looic se_looic Dataset
modelC 0.0000 0.00000 -3911.835 56.02543 146.3747 7.947549 7823.671 112.0509 Dataset 7 public.csv
modelB -301.2498 23.71851 -4213.085 58.47821 151.7155 8.850975 8426.170 116.9564 Dataset 7 public.csv
extract_param <- function(model, parameter) {
  ci <- posterior_summary(model, variable = parameter)
  est <- sprintf("%.2f %.2f [%.2f;%.2f]", ci[,"Estimate"],ci[,"Est.Error"], ci[,"Q2.5"], ci[,"Q97.5"])
  est
}

results_K <- data.frame(matrix(nrow = 7, 
                             ncol = 8+1)) 
names(results_K) <- c("model", "negemo_b_neuro", "negemo_b_neuro_sigma", "negemo_sigma", "b_neg_sigma_sex",
                    "posemo_b_neuro", "posemo_b_neuro_sigma", "posemo_sigma", "b_pos_sigma_sex"
                    )

results_K$model <- c("model1", "model2", "model3",
                  "RSD", "RSD_weight", "SD", "gender")

#NA

results_K[2, "negemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro2, "b_neuro_t")
results_K[2, "negemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro2, "sigma")

results_K[3, "negemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_neuro_t")
results_K[3, "negemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_K[3, "negemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_Intercept")
#gender 

results_K[7, "negemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_sex, "b_neuro_t")
results_K[7, "negemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_sex, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_K[7, "negemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_sex, "b_sigma_Intercept")
results_K[7, "b_neg_sigma_sex"] <- extract_param(Kn_model_sex, "b_sigma_gender1")
#pa
results_K[2, "posemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro2, "b_neuro_t")
results_K[2, "posemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro2, "sigma")

results_K[3, "posemo_b_neuro"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_neuro_t")
results_K[3, "posemo_b_neuro_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_neuro_t")
results_K[3, "posemo_sigma"] <- extract_param(Kp_model_neuro3, "b_sigma_Intercept")

4 RVI (Relative Variability Index)

data_w <- unique(dataset[,2:5])

4.1 Unweighted RVI

data_w$RSD_NA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$RSD_NA[i] <- relativeSD(dataset$negemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                     1, 5)
    }

range(data_w$RSD_NA, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.08954421 0.89894740
mean(data_w$RSD_NA, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.3423722
sd(data_w$RSD_NA, na.rm = T)
## [1] 0.1302563
data_w$logrsd_n <- log(data_w$RSD_NA)

#plot(data_w$logrsd_n)

m_rvi_na <- brm(logrsd_n ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_logrsd_uw"))
print(m_rvi_na)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logrsd_n ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -1.11      0.18    -1.47    -0.77 1.00     4343     2978
## neuro_t      -0.01      0.06    -0.12     0.11 1.00     4296     2907
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.39      0.03     0.33     0.46 1.00     3135     2822
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[4,3] <- extract_param(m_rvi_na, "b_neuro_t")



data_w$RSD_PA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$RSD_PA[i] <- relativeSD(dataset$posemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                     1, 5)
}

range(data_w$RSD_PA)
## [1] 0.1027522 0.8204746
data_w$logrsd_p <- log(data_w$RSD_PA)


m_rvi_pa <- brm(logrsd_p ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                 file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_logrsd_uw"))
print(m_rvi_pa)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logrsd_p ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -0.98      0.19    -1.35    -0.61 1.00     3909     2529
## neuro_t      -0.05      0.06    -0.17     0.06 1.00     3943     2568
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.39      0.03     0.33     0.47 1.00     3486     2678
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[4,6] <- extract_param(m_rvi_pa, "b_neuro_t")

4.2 Weighted RVI

data_w$mean_NA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$mean_NA[i] <- mean(dataset$negemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                   na.rm = T)
    }

mean(data_w$mean_NA)
## [1] 1.852483
sd(data_w$mean_NA)
## [1] 0.5531851
data_w$mean_PA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$mean_PA[i] <- mean(dataset$posemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                   na.rm = T)
}

mean(data_w$mean_PA)
## [1] 3.350329
sd(data_w$mean_PA)
## [1] 0.5907569
data_w$weight_NA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
    if (!is.na(data_w$mean_NA[i])) {
      data_w$weight_NA[i] <- maximumSD(data_w$mean_NA[i], # Mittelwert
                                       1,  # Minimum
                                       5,  # Maximum
                                       sum(!is.na(dataset$negemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]])) 
      ) 
      # W as reported in paper
      data_w$weight_NA[i] <- data_w$weight_NA[i]^2
    }
  }

mean(data_w$weight_NA)
## [1] 2.377185
sd(data_w$weight_NA)
## [1] 1.11407
range(data_w$weight_NA)
## [1] 0.01588966 4.02370459
m_rvi_na_w <- brm(logrsd_n| weights(weight_NA) ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_logrsd"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(m_rvi_na_w)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logrsd_n | weights(weight_NA) ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -1.37      0.12    -1.61    -1.13 1.00     3101     2689
## neuro_t       0.06      0.04    -0.02     0.13 1.00     3399     2563
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.38      0.02     0.34     0.42 1.00     4011     2910
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[5,3] <- extract_param(m_rvi_na_w, "b_neuro_t")



data_w$weight_PA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
    if (!is.na(data_w$mean_PA[i])) {
      data_w$weight_PA[i] <- maximumSD(data_w$mean_PA[i], # Mittelwert
                                       1,  # Minimum
                                       5,  # Maximum
                                       sum(!is.na(dataset$posemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]])) 
      ) 
      # W as reported in paper
      data_w$weight_PA[i] <- data_w$weight_PA[i]^2
    }
  }

m_rvi_pa_w <- brm(logrsd_p| weights(weight_PA) ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_logrsd"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(m_rvi_pa_w)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logrsd_p | weights(weight_PA) ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -0.97      0.10    -1.17    -0.77 1.00     3751     2726
## neuro_t      -0.06      0.03    -0.13     0.00 1.00     3873     2969
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.38      0.02     0.35     0.41 1.00     3994     2809
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[5,6] <- extract_param(m_rvi_pa_w, "b_neuro_t")

5 SD

data_w$sd_NA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$sd_NA[i] <- sd(dataset$negemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                   na.rm = T)
    }

data_w$sd_PA <- NA
for (i in 1:nrow(data_w)) {
      data_w$sd_PA[i] <- sd(dataset$posemo_full_m[dataset$person_id == data_w$person_id[i]],
                                   na.rm = T)
    }

mean(data_w$sd_NA)
## [1] 0.4858572
mean(data_w$sd_PA)
## [1] 0.6253718
data_w$sd_PA[data_w$sd_PA == 0] <- NA   
data_w$sd_NA[data_w$sd_NA == 0] <- NA   


data_w$logsd_NA <- log(data_w$sd_NA)
data_w$logsd_PA <- log(data_w$sd_PA)
m_sd_na <- brm(logsd_NA ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kn_model_logsd"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
m_sd_na
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logsd_NA ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -1.43      0.21    -1.85    -1.00 1.00     3876     2600
## neuro_t       0.21      0.07     0.07     0.34 1.00     3840     2741
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.45      0.04     0.38     0.53 1.00     3549     2780
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[6,3] <- extract_param(m_sd_na, "b_neuro_t")

m_sd_pa <- brm(logsd_PA ~ neuro_t, data= data_w,
                    file = paste("models/", params$file, "Kp_model_logsd"))
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
m_sd_pa
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
## Formula: logsd_PA ~ neuro_t 
##    Data: data_w (Number of observations: 75) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept    -0.59      0.19    -0.96    -0.23 1.00     3660     3033
## neuro_t       0.02      0.06    -0.10     0.14 1.00     3662     2767
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.41      0.03     0.35     0.48 1.00     3828     2795
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
results_K[6,6] <- extract_param(m_sd_pa, "b_neuro_t")
library("writexl")

write_xlsx(results_K,paste0("", params$file, ".xlsx"))

6 Incremental Validity of SD

na_noneurot <- brm(bf(negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~  (1|person_id),
                       sigma ~ (1|person_id)), data = dataset,
                       iter = 7000, warmup = 2000,chains = 4,
                      control = list(adapt_delta = .99), init = 0.1,
                   file = "na_noneurot")
## Warning: Rows containing NAs were excluded from the model.
print(na_noneurot)
##  Family: gaussian 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = log 
## Formula: negemo_full_m | cens(Acens) ~ (1 | person_id) 
##          sigma ~ (1 | person_id)
##    Data: dataset (Number of observations: 4753) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 7000; warmup = 2000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 20000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~person_id (Number of levels: 79) 
##                     Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)           0.62      0.05     0.53     0.73 1.00     1294     2871
## sd(sigma_Intercept)     0.39      0.03     0.33     0.46 1.00     2101     4967
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                 Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept           1.80      0.07     1.67     1.94 1.01      551     1354
## sigma_Intercept    -0.69      0.04    -0.78    -0.60 1.01     1138     2648
## 
## Draws were sampled using sample(hmc). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
rans <- coef(na_noneurot, summary = T)


rans_i <- as.data.frame(rans$person_id[,,"Intercept"]) %>% tibble::rownames_to_column("person_id")
rans_s <- as.data.frame(rans$person_id[,,"sigma_Intercept"]) %>% tibble::rownames_to_column("person_id")
nrow(rans_s)
## [1] 79
nrow(rans_i)
## [1] 79
nrow(data_w)
## [1] 79
dat <- merge(rans_s, rans_i, all = T, by= "person_id")
dat <- merge(dat, data_w, all = T, by= "person_id")

names(dat)[2] <- "Est.SD"
names(dat)[6] <- "Est.M"

fit1 <- lm(neuro_t ~ Est.SD + Est.M , data=dat)
summary(fit1)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = neuro_t ~ Est.SD + Est.M, data = dat)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.2973 -0.4612  0.1005  0.4717  1.6715 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   2.2301     0.2992   7.454 1.59e-10 ***
## Est.SD        0.3344     0.2157   1.550    0.126    
## Est.M         0.5754     0.1300   4.427 3.33e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.681 on 72 degrees of freedom
##   (4 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2464, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2254 
## F-statistic: 11.77 on 2 and 72 DF,  p-value: 3.78e-05
fit1.2 <- lm(neuro_t ~  Est.M , data=dat)
summary(fit1.2)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = neuro_t ~ Est.M, data = dat)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1.29857 -0.48152  0.00373  0.50760  1.71490 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   1.9664     0.2484   7.915 2.03e-11 ***
## Est.M         0.5947     0.1306   4.554 2.06e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.6875 on 73 degrees of freedom
##   (4 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2212, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2106 
## F-statistic: 20.74 on 1 and 73 DF,  p-value: 2.062e-05
aov <- anova(fit1.2, fit1)
aov
## Analysis of Variance Table
## 
## Model 1: neuro_t ~ Est.M
## Model 2: neuro_t ~ Est.SD + Est.M
##   Res.Df    RSS Df Sum of Sq      F Pr(>F)
## 1     73 34.509                           
## 2     72 33.394  1    1.1144 2.4027 0.1255
summary(fit1)$r.squared-summary(fit1.2)$r.squared
## [1] 0.02514863
results_SDin <- data.frame(matrix(nrow = 1, ncol = 9))
names(results_SDin) <- c("Dataset","b_SD","Err.SD","p(b_SD)","b_M","Err.M","p(b_M)","ΔR²", "p")

results_SDin$Dataset <- params$file

results_SDin$`ΔR²` <- summary(fit1)$r.squared-summary(fit1.2)$r.squared
results_SDin$`p` <- aov$`Pr(>F)`[2]
results_SDin$Err.SD <- summary(fit1)$coefficients[2,2]
results_SDin$b_SD <- fit1$coefficients[2]

results_SDin$`p(b_SD)` <- summary(fit1)$coefficients[2,4]
results_SDin$b_M <- fit1$coefficients[3]
results_SDin$`p(b_M)` <- summary(fit1)$coefficients[3,4]
results_SDin$Err.M <- summary(fit1)$coefficients[3,2]

  
library("writexl")
write_xlsx(results_SDin,paste0("SD", params$file, ".xlsx"))